Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Binissalem: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Binissalem

Juanca Alarcón 90+3'

Álex Sánchez 69'

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 21Estadi Municipal Can Misses III

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas63%

×Draw23%

Binissalem14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchBinissalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.68

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.73

Binissalem

0.68

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 154% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 113 away

2.14

creates per match

0.92

0.44

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Binissalem

0.92

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Binissalem

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Binissalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Binissalem →

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

86%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Binissalem

77%

Draw or Binissalem

37%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

36%

Binissalem wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

82%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

52%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

25%

Binissalem 1+ goals

49%

Binissalem 2+ goals

15%

Binissalem 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

81%

Binissalem (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Binissalem away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Binissalem defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.73

Binissalem attack 0.92 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

63%

level

23%

Binissalem scores more

14%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Juanca Alarcón← F. Núñez

63'

Felipao← Dani Sales

63'

Mario Riquelme← Xesc Navalón

69'

Álex Sánchez

75'

Sergi Oliver← Ramón Mondéjar

75'

Álvaro Jiménez← Samu Fernández

85'

Roberto Fernández← Álex Sánchez

85'

Maikel Makate← Chus Sánchez

85'

Miguel Valle← Juan Camilo

90+3'

Juanca Alarcón

Ibiza

Binissalem

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Sánchez

Manager: Raúl Casañ

55'▲Juanca Alarcón←▼F. Núñez

63'▲Felipao←▼Dani Sales

63'▲Mario Riquelme←▼Xesc Navalón

85'▲Roberto Fernández←▼Álex Sánchez

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

AlarcónFelipaoRiquelmeFernández

Manager: Polero

75'▲Sergi Oliver←▼Ramón Mondéjar

75'▲Álvaro Jiménez←▼Samu Fernández

85'▲Maikel Makate←▼Chus Sánchez

85'▲Miguel Valle←▼Juan Camilo

Binissalem substitutes

OliverJiménezMakateValle

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Binissalem

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Binissalem 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 18, 2024.

Goals: Álex Sánchez (69'), Juanca Alarcón (90+3').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Can Misses III in Eivissa.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Binissalem — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Binissalem