Binissalem 0–3 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Binissalem

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Colau 54'

José Arias 16'

Onofre Riera 3'

11/2/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Estadio Miquel Pons

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Binissalem21%

×Draw26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BinissalemExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.48

Binissalem

0.84

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.48

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 76% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 44 away

1.09

creates per match

2.00

0.96

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Binissalem

1.09

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Binissalem

0.96

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Binissalem+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binissalem ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Binissalem or draw

48%

Binissalem or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

74%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

79%

Winning margin

Binissalem wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Binissalem 1+ goals

57%

Binissalem 2+ goals

21%

Binissalem 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

77%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

43%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Binissalem (draw refunded)

29%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Binissalem at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.96 · 115 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Binissalem attack 1.09 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.84

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Binissalem defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Binissalem scores more

21%

level

26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

52%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Onofre Riera

16'

José Arias

46'

Gorka Ramón← F. Losada

54'

Colau

56'

Forteza← Miquel López

66'

Manuel Sanchez← I. Merlin

66'

Dailos Tejera← Onofre Riera

74'

Cristian Terán← Colau

Binissalem

Ibiza

⚽

▼

Colau

▼

Losada

Solano

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Luis Espinosa

56'▲Forteza←▼Miquel López

66'▲Manuel Sanchez←▼I. Merlin

Binissalem substitutes

FortezaSanchez

Manager: José Pérez

46'▲Gorka Ramón←▼F. Losada

66'▲Dailos Tejera←▼Onofre Riera

74'▲Cristian Terán←▼Colau

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

RamónTejeraTerán

Match Recap: Binissalem vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Binissalem 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 2, 2019.

Goals: Onofre Riera (3'), José Arias (16'), Colau (54').

The match was played at Estadio Miquel Pons in Mallorca.

Binissalem vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Binissalem vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas