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Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Binissalem — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
CANC
00:00
Binissalem
Binissalem
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas63%
×Draw23%
Binissalem14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
1.73
Binissalem
0.68

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 154% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 113 away

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
2.14
Binissalem
0.92

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
0.44
Binissalem
1.32

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par
Binissalem+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Binissalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw
86%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Binissalem
77%
Draw or Binissalem
37%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+
36%
Binissalem wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals
82%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals
52%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals
25%
Binissalem 1+ goals
49%
Binissalem 2+ goals
15%
Binissalem 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)
81%
Binissalem (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Binissalem away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Binissalem defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.73

Binissalem attack 0.92 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more
63%
level
23%
Binissalem scores more
14%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas host Binissalem

March 29, 2020: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas take on Binissalem in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas host Binissalem at Estadio Municipal de Can Misses.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.