Huracan 2–2 Emelec: Result & Stats

Huracan

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Emelec

J. Acevedo 60'

S. Hezze 6'

M. Bolaños 86'

A. Cabeza 18'

5/26/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Huracan46%

×Draw26%

Emelec28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.09

Huracan

1.48

Emelec

1.09

Huracan creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.88

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Huracan

1.88

Emelec

1.18

allows per match

Huracan

1.00

Emelec

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huracan+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

72%

Huracan or Emelec

74%

Draw or Emelec

54%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

23%

Emelec wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

77%

Huracan 2+ goals

43%

Huracan 3+ goals

19%

Emelec 1+ goals

66%

Emelec 2+ goals

30%

Emelec 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

62%

Emelec (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.88 + Emelec defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.48

Emelec attack 1.18 + Huracan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Huracan scores more

46%

level

26%

Emelec scores more

28%

Huracan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

M. Bolaños

Emelec · F

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Joseph Espinoza

6'

S. Hezze↳ W. Mazzantti

18'

A. Cabeza↳ B. Carabalí

21'

Nicolás Cordero

24'

Alejandro Cabeza

47'

Miller Bolaños

59'

M. Cóccaro← N. Cordero

59'

J. Acevedo← L. Castro

60'

J. Acevedo

69'

J. Cevallos← C. Valencia

69'

D. García← B. Carabalí

72'

J. Sánchez← S. Sosa

74'

P. Pizarro← F. Tobio

79'

L. Carrizo← M. Gómez

79'

G. Gudiño← W. Mazzantti

81'

J. Pérez← B. Angulo

86'

M. Bolaños↳ J. Sánchez

90+11'

Alejandro Cabeza

90+10'

Alejandro CabezaCard upgrade

90+7'

Alejandro CabezaGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuracanEmelec

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots11

6Corners2

15Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots11

5On Target6

5Off Target2

1Blocked3

6Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

344Total Passes331

248Accurate Passes236

72%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards2

2Offsides4

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Huracan 2–2 Emelec

Huracan and Emelec drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 26, 2023.

Goals: S. Hezze (6'), A. Cabeza (18'), J. Acevedo (60'), M. Bolaños (86').

Huracan controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.

Huracan vs Emelec — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Huracan 2–2 Emelec