Emelec 1–0 Huracan: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Huracan

C. Fara 17'

4/21/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Emelec51%

×Draw28%

Huracan21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchHuracan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.78

Emelec

1.38

Huracan

0.78

Emelec creates 77% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

0.63

0.92

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Emelec

1.50

Huracan

0.63

allows per match

Emelec

0.92

Huracan

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Huracan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Huracan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

79%

Emelec or Huracan

72%

Draw or Huracan

49%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

25%

Huracan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

75%

Emelec 2+ goals

40%

Emelec 3+ goals

16%

Huracan 1+ goals

54%

Huracan 2+ goals

18%

Huracan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

71%

Huracan (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.50 + Huracan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Huracan attack 0.63 + Emelec defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Emelec scores more

51%

level

28%

Huracan scores more

21%

Emelec at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Fara

Emelec · D

8.2

Match Events

17'

34'

41'

42'

49'

59'

59'

J. Sánchez← D. García

59'

J. Espinoza← J. Cevallos

60'

J. Garro← V. Burgoa

60'

M. Cóccaro← N. Cordero

73'

B. Agrón← A. Leguizamón

73'

B. Angulo← A. Cabeza

76'

Matías Cóccaro

78'

G. Gudiño← L. Castro

82'

J. García← F. Fattori

85'

90+4'

90+3'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecHuracan

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots16

5Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots16

2On Target3

7Off Target7

2Blocked6

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box10

Passing

46%Possession54%

360Total Passes415

259Accurate Passes322

72%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls15

5Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Emelec 1–0 Huracan

Emelec beat Huracan 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 21, 2023.

Goals: C. Fara (17').

Huracan controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio George Capwell in Guayaquil.

Emelec vs Huracan — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Emelec 1–0 Huracan