Huracan 1–2 Emelec: Result & Stats

Huracan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Emelec

Lucas Gamba 90'

Brayan Angulo 72'

Jordan Jaime 34'

4/23/2019

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Tomas Adolfo Duco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Huracan34%

×Draw33%

Emelec33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.89

Huracan

0.92

Emelec

0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.17

0.60

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Huracan

1.00

Emelec

1.17

allows per match

Huracan

0.60

Emelec

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huracan+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

67%

Huracan or Emelec

67%

Draw or Emelec

66%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

12%

Emelec wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

60%

Huracan 2+ goals

23%

Huracan 3+ goals

7%

Emelec 1+ goals

59%

Emelec 2+ goals

22%

Emelec 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

51%

Emelec (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.00 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Emelec attack 1.17 + Huracan defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Huracan scores more

34%

level

33%

Emelec scores more

33%

Huracan at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Esteban Dreer

Emelec · G

8.6

Match Events

32'

Joel Lopez Pisano

34'

Jordan Jaime

46'

Holger Matamoros← Joel Lopez Pisano

57'

Lucas Barrios← Norberto Briasco Balekian

61'

Patricio Toranzo← Pablo Alvarez

69'

Gorman Estacio

72'

Brayan Angulo↳ Holger Matamoros

87'

Gabriel Cortez← Brayan Angulo

89'

Marlon Mejía← Nicolás Queiroz

90'

Lucas Gamba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuracanEmelec

Overview

60%Possession40%

27Total Shots9

14Corners3

13Fouls15

Shots

27Total Shots9

11On Target4

11Off Target3

5Blocked2

16Inside Box6

11Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

417Total Passes290

311Accurate Passes164

75%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

13Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3