Huracan 3–2 Deportivo Riestra: Result & Stats

Huracan

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Riestra

N. Sansotre 78' (OG)

E. Ramirez 69', 45'

N. Benegas 82'

A. Alonso 59'

5/11/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 8th FinalsEstadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Huracan46%

×Draw32%

Deportivo Riestra22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Riestra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.67

Huracan

1.11

Deportivo Riestra

0.67

Huracan creates 66% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

0.97

creates per match

0.68

0.66

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Huracan

0.97

Deportivo Riestra

0.68

allows per match

Huracan

0.66

Deportivo Riestra

1.25

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Huracan-0.21scores less

Deportivo Riestra+0.01on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Deportivo Riestra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

78%

Huracan or Deportivo Riestra

68%

Draw or Deportivo Riestra

54%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

67%

Huracan 2+ goals

30%

Huracan 3+ goals

10%

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals

49%

Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals

15%

Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

68%

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.66 · 17 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 0.97 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.68 + Huracan defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Huracan scores more

46%

level

32%

Deportivo Riestra scores more

22%

Huracan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

43

E. Ramirez

Huracan · M

8.6

Match Events

-5'

4'

45'

56'

59'

A. Alonso↳ N. Benegas

64'

Milton Celiz

69'

E. Ramirez↳ L. Sequeira

72'

74'

74'

75'

78'

N. SansotreOwn goal

80'

Nicolás Benegas

81'

Hernán Galíndez

82'

N. Benegas↳ A. Alonso

83'

T. Guidara← H. De La Fuente

83'

G. Alanis← A. Urzi

85'

G. Obredor← J. Goitia

86'

J. Herrera← P. Ramirez

88'

N. Goitea← M. Miljevic

88'

M. Tissera← L. Sequeira

90+6'

Matías Tissera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuracanDeportivo

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots8

6Corners1

12Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots8

3On Target3

6Off Target5

3Blocked0

8Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

360Total Passes284

265Accurate Passes167

74%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls20

3Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Huracan 3–2 Deportivo Riestra

Huracan beat Deportivo Riestra 3-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 11, 2025.

Goals: E. Ramirez (45', 69'), A. Alonso (59'), N. Sansotre (78' o.g.), N. Benegas (82').

Huracan controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó in Buenos Aires.

Huracan vs Deportivo Riestra — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Huracan 3–2 Deportivo Riestra