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Deportivo Riestra vs Huracan — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huracan
Huracan
J. Herrera 71' (pen)
9/13/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Guillermo Laza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Deportivo Riestra40%
×Draw31%
Huracan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Riestra
1.09
Huracan
0.89

Deportivo Riestra creates 22% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra
1.17
Huracan
0.84

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra
0.94
Huracan
1.01

finishing

Deportivo Riestra+0.08on par
Huracan+0.10scores more

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra ↓

Huracan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra or draw
71%
Deportivo Riestra or Huracan
69%
Draw or Huracan
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
16%
Huracan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
10%
Huracan 1+ goals
59%
Huracan 2+ goals
22%
Huracan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
58%
Huracan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.01 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra attack 1.17 + Huracan defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Huracan attack 0.84 + Deportivo Riestra defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Riestra scores more
40%
level
31%
Huracan scores more
29%

Deportivo Riestra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Riestra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. HerreraDeportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra · F
7.6

Match Events

18'
Alan Barrionuevo
46'
G. Pereira← T. Villoldo
46'
N. Benegas← A. Díaz
61'
Fernando Tobio
62'
W. Alarcón← H. Fértoli
62'
M. Pérez← E. Ramírez
68'
Brian SánchezPenalty confirmed
71'
J. HerreraPenalty
72'
F. Alfonso← G. Benítez
75'
J. Goitía← B. Sánchez
86'
R. Cabral← L. Souto
86'
A. Soñora← F. Fattori
87'
J. Goya← J. Herrera
90+1'
Rodrigo Cabral
90+2'
G. Fernández← G. Pereira

Possession

37%Deportivo

Shots

9Deportivo

Pass accuracy

44%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoHuracan
Overview
37%Possession63%
9Total Shots14
1.15Expected Goals (xG)1.14
5Corners4
10Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots14
2On Target3
6Off Target8
1Blocked3
7Inside Box10
2Outside Box4
Passing
37%Possession63%
286Total Passes484
183Accurate Passes389
64%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
0.20Goals Prevented0.20
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Deportivo Riestra vs Huracan

Deportivo Riestra beat Huracan 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 13, 2024.

Goals: J. Herrera (71' pen).

Huracan controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Laza in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.