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Huracan vs Defensa Y Justicia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Huracan
Huracan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Defensa Y Justicia
Defensa Y Justicia
L. Lescano 60'
L. Ferreira 33'
4/19/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Huracan43%
×Draw29%
Defensa Y Justicia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracan
1.23
Defensa Y Justicia
0.93

Huracan creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Huracan
0.96
Defensa Y Justicia
1.20

allows per match

Huracan
0.66
Defensa Y Justicia
1.49

finishing

Huracan-0.15scores less
Defensa Y Justicia-0.43scores less

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Huracan or draw
72%
Huracan or Defensa Y Justicia
71%
Draw or Defensa Y Justicia
57%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+
19%
Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals
71%
Huracan 2+ goals
35%
Huracan 3+ goals
13%
Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals
61%
Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals
24%
Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)
61%
Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.66 · 16 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 0.96 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.23

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + Huracan defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huracan scores more
43%
level
29%
Defensa Y Justicia scores more
28%

Huracan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
L. LescanoHuracanHuracan · D
8.5

Match Events

5'
Rafael Delgado
21'
Abiel Osorio
23'
Alexis Soto
29'
Rodrigo Cabral
33'
L. Ferreira↳ A. Molinas
34'
Lucas Ferreira
42'
Francisco González
43'
Alexis Soto
43'
Alexis Soto
45+3'
Leonardo Gil
45'
Kevin Gutiérrez
46'
W. Mazzantti← R. Cabral
46'
L. Sequeira← E. Ramirez
46'
D. Perez← G. Gonzalez
60'
L. Lescano
63'
Walter MazzanttiGoal confirmed
65'
B. Schamine← A. Molinas
74'
M. Ramirez← F. Gonzalez
74'
J. B. Miritello← A. Osorio
83'
H. De La Fuente← T. Guidara
83'
E. Ojeda← A. Urzi
87'
R. Abila← L. Perez
87'
S. Sosa← M. Gonzalez
90+5'
Enrique Bologna
90+4'
Benjamin Schamine

Possession

68%Huracan

Shots

26Huracan

Pass accuracy

55%Huracan

Statistics

HuracanDefensa
Overview
68%Possession32%
26Total Shots11
3Corners4
10Fouls20
Shots
26Total Shots11
9On Target3
13Off Target6
4Blocked2
16Inside Box6
10Outside Box5
Passing
68%Possession32%
443Total Passes216
368Accurate Passes145
83%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
Discipline
10Fouls20
2Yellow Cards9
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Huracan 1–1 Defensa Y Justicia

Huracan and Defensa Y Justicia drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 19, 2025.

Goals: L. Ferreira (33'), L. Lescano (60').

Huracan controlled possession (68%) and registered 26 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó in Buenos Aires.