Defensa Y Justicia 2–4 Huracan: Result & Stats

Defensa Y Justicia

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Huracan

D. Barbona 49'

N. Fernández 45+3'

J. García 86'

N. Cordero 82'

G. Gudiño 43'

S. Hezze 7'

1/28/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 1Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia35%

×Draw30%

Huracan34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensa Y JusticiaExpected goals in this matchHuracan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.03

Defensa Y Justicia

1.05

Huracan

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

1.09

creates per match

0.84

1.23

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.09

Huracan

0.84

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.23

Huracan

1.01

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia-0.20scores less

Huracan+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Huracan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw

66%

Defensa Y Justicia or Huracan

70%

Draw or Huracan

65%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

14%

Huracan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

65%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

28%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

9%

Huracan 1+ goals

64%

Huracan 2+ goals

28%

Huracan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

51%

Huracan (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.01 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.09 + Huracan defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.05

Huracan attack 0.84 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

35%

level

30%

Huracan scores more

34%

Defensa Y Justicia at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

N. Fernández

Defensa Y Justicia · F

7.7

Match Events

7'

S. Hezze↳ L. Merolla

43'

G. Gudiño↳ J. Gauto

45+3'

N. Fernández↳ A. Soto

49'

58'

69'

69'

73'

73'

D. Cáceres← G. Alanís

82'

N. Cordero

83'

V. Burgoa← G. Gudiño

83'

J. García← M. Cóccaro

84'

A. Sant'Anna← A. Soto

84'

R. Bogarín← N. Tripichio

84'

86'

87'

90'

90+1'

90'

L. Carrizo← J. Acevedo

90'

P. Pizarro← G. Soto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DefensaHuracan

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots15

5Corners7

13Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots15

3On Target9

4Off Target3

7Blocked3

7Inside Box11

7Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

428Total Passes252

345Accurate Passes175

81%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3