Huracan 3–1 Defensa Y Justicia: Result & Stats

Huracan

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Defensa Y Justicia

I. Pussetto 90+3', 45' (pen)

H. Fértoli 58'

G. Alanís 81'

5/11/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Huracan43%

×Draw29%

Defensa Y Justicia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchDefensa Y Justicia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.93

Huracan

1.23

Defensa Y Justicia

0.93

Huracan creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

0.96

creates per match

1.20

0.66

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Huracan

0.96

Defensa Y Justicia

1.20

allows per match

Huracan

0.66

Defensa Y Justicia

1.49

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Huracan-0.15scores less

Defensa Y Justicia-0.43scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

72%

Huracan or Defensa Y Justicia

71%

Draw or Defensa Y Justicia

57%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

19%

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

71%

Huracan 2+ goals

35%

Huracan 3+ goals

13%

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

61%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

24%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

61%

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.66 · 16 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 0.96 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.23

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + Huracan defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huracan scores more

43%

level

29%

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

28%

Huracan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

I. Pussetto

Huracan · F

8.2

Match Events

1'

13'

21'

32'

43'

45+3'

45+3'

45'

I. PussettoPenalty

46'

A. Soto← D. Cáceres

58'

H. Fértoli↳ W. Mazzantti

71'

F. Fattori← W. Alarcón

71'

F. Alfonso← R. Cabral

71'

G. Alanís← K. López

71'

N. Tripichio← J. López

75'

Alexis Soto

77'

E. Aguilera← E. Burgos

81'

G. Alanís↳ N. Fernández

86'

Gabriel AlanisGoal confirmed

87'

A. Molinas← R. Bogarín

88'

S. Ramírez← H. Fértoli

90+8'

M. Gómez← W. Mazzantti

90+8'

L. Garate← I. Pussetto

90+3'

I. Pussetto↳ S. Ramírez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuracanDefensa

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots12

1.58Expected Goals (xG)0.58

6Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots12

6On Target4

4Off Target6

5Blocked2

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

376Total Passes399

311Accurate Passes318

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1