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Huracan vs Belgrano Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Huracan
Huracan
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Belgrano Cordoba
Belgrano Cordoba
L. Passerini 90' (pen)
L. Zelarayan 56'
F. Jara 4'
7/12/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Huracan41%
×Draw32%
Belgrano Cordoba27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracan
1.04
Belgrano Cordoba
0.78

Huracan creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

creates per match

Huracan
0.97
Belgrano Cordoba
0.89

allows per match

Huracan
0.66
Belgrano Cordoba
1.11

finishing

Huracan-0.21scores less
Belgrano Cordoba-0.10scores less

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Belgrano Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Huracan or draw
73%
Huracan or Belgrano Cordoba
68%
Draw or Belgrano Cordoba
59%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+
16%
Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals
65%
Huracan 2+ goals
28%
Huracan 3+ goals
9%
Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals
54%
Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals
18%
Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)
60%
Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.66 · 17 matches

Belgrano Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 0.97 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.89 + Huracan defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huracan scores more
41%
level
32%
Belgrano Cordoba scores more
27%

Huracan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. ZelarayanBelgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba · F
7.9

Match Events

4'
F. Jara↳ G. Compagnucci
37'
Facundo Quignon
46'
F. Gonzalez← F. Quignon
49'
Tobías Ostchega
55'
J. Bisanz← G. Alanis
56'
L. Zelarayan↳ F. Gonzalez
60'
A. Urzi← M. Miljevic
60'
R. Abila← E. Ramirez
69'
L. Passerini← N. Fernandez
81'
Sebastián Meza
81'
Ramón Ábila
90+4'
Agustín Urzi
90'
N. Meriano← L. Lopez
90+2'
U. Sanchez← F. Jara
90'
L. PasseriniPenalty

Possession

67%Huracan

Shots

14Huracan

Pass accuracy

58%Huracan

Statistics

HuracanBelgrano
Overview
67%Possession33%
14Total Shots6
1.65Expected Goals (xG)1.07
9Corners1
5Fouls25
Shots
14Total Shots6
1On Target3
9Off Target2
4Blocked1
9Inside Box1
5Outside Box5
Passing
67%Possession33%
422Total Passes222
340Accurate Passes131
81%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
0.12Goals Prevented0.12
Discipline
5Fouls25
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Huracan 0–3 Belgrano Cordoba

Belgrano Cordoba beat Huracan 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 12, 2025.

Goals: F. Jara (4'), L. Zelarayan (56'), L. Passerini (90' pen).

Huracan controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó in Buenos Aires.