Belgrano Cordoba 2–0 Huracan: Result & Stats

Belgrano Cordoba

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Huracan

L. Diarte 66'

U. Sánchez 33'

4/12/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 11Estadio Julio César Villagra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba36%

×Draw32%

Huracan32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano CordobaExpected goals in this matchHuracan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.92

Belgrano Cordoba

1.00

Huracan

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

0.99

creates per match

0.84

0.99

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.99

Huracan

0.84

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.99

Huracan

1.01

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.07on par

Huracan+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Huracan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw

68%

Belgrano Cordoba or Huracan

68%

Draw or Huracan

64%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

14%

Huracan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

63%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

26%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

8%

Huracan 1+ goals

60%

Huracan 2+ goals

23%

Huracan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

53%

Huracan (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.99 · 18 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.01 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.99 + Huracan defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Huracan attack 0.84 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

36%

level

32%

Huracan scores more

32%

Belgrano Cordoba at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

U. Sánchez

Belgrano Cordoba · M

8.3

Match Events

24'

Gastón Sauro

33'

U. Sánchez↳ B. Zapelli

46'

L. Diarte← A. Ibacache

58'

S. Hezze← F. Godoy

58'

G. Benítez← C. Ibáñez

59'

V. Burgoa← J. García

62'

Valentín Burgoa

66'

L. Diarte↳ U. Sánchez

69'

A. Rojas← M. García

78'

M. Cóccaro← J. Garro

79'

G. Compagnucci← B. Zapelli

80'

F. Bordagaray← F. Jara

81'

Alejandro Rebola

90+3'

Santiago Hezze

90'

I. Hesar← J. Barinaga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgranoHuracan

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots4

6Corners2

15Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots4

5On Target1

8Off Target3

0Blocked0

7Inside Box3

6Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

392Total Passes340

310Accurate Passes260

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Belgrano Cordoba 2–0 Huracan

Belgrano Cordoba beat Huracan 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 12, 2023.

Goals: U. Sánchez (33'), L. Diarte (66').

Belgrano Cordoba controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Julio César Villagra in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.

Belgrano Cordoba vs Huracan — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Belgrano Cordoba 2–0 Huracan