Huracan 1–0 Belgrano Cordoba: Result & Stats

Huracan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Belgrano Cordoba

W. Alarcón 36'

8/18/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 11Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Huracan41%

×Draw32%

Belgrano Cordoba27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchBelgrano Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.78

Huracan

1.04

Belgrano Cordoba

0.78

Huracan creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

0.97

creates per match

0.89

0.66

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Huracan

0.97

Belgrano Cordoba

0.89

allows per match

Huracan

0.66

Belgrano Cordoba

1.11

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Huracan-0.21scores less

Belgrano Cordoba-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Belgrano Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

73%

Huracan or Belgrano Cordoba

68%

Draw or Belgrano Cordoba

59%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

16%

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

65%

Huracan 2+ goals

28%

Huracan 3+ goals

9%

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

54%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

18%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

60%

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.66 · 17 matches

Belgrano Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 0.97 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.89 + Huracan defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huracan scores more

41%

level

32%

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

27%

Huracan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

W. Alarcón

Huracan · M

7.9

Match Events

18'

29'

36'

41'

46'

R. Hernandes← I. Tapia

52'

Guillermo Benitez

57'

B. Reyna← P. Chavarría

63'

Bryan Reyna

67'

H. Fértoli← R. Cabral

71'

L. Bernabéu← R. Delgado

75'

Guillermo Benitez

75'

Guillermo Benitez

77'

S. Ramírez← R. Ábila

77'

C. Ibáñez← W. Alarcón

81'

F. Rami← L. Bustos

81'

M. Oses← F. Lencioni

85'

Agustín Baldi

88'

F. Tobio← W. Mazzantti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuracanBelgrano

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots10

0.81Expected Goals (xG)0.75

2Corners3

9Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target3

4Off Target2

2Blocked5

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

392Total Passes402

315Accurate Passes326

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.08Goals Prevented-0.08

Discipline

9Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0