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Huracan vs Atletico Tucuman — League #1032 2026

Huracan
Huracan
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
4/14/2024League #1032League #1032 · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Huracan78%
×Draw18%
Atletico Tucuman4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracan
1.88
Atletico Tucuman
0.25

Huracan creates 652% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Huracan
1.75
Atletico Tucuman
0.50

allows per match

Huracan
0.00
Atletico Tucuman
2.00

finishing

Huracan+0.00on par
Atletico Tucuman+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

81%No
  • No81
  • Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Atletico Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–13%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–021%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Huracan or draw
96%
Huracan or Atletico Tucuman
82%
Draw or Atletico Tucuman
22%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+
49%
Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals
85%
Huracan 2+ goals
56%
Huracan 3+ goals
29%
Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
22%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
3%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)
95%
Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.75 + Atletico Tucuman defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Atletico Tucuman attack 0.50 + Huracan defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Huracan scores more
78%
level
18%
Atletico Tucuman scores more
4%

Huracan at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huracan vs Atletico Tucuman

Huracan beat Atletico Tucuman 4-0 in League #1032 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.