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Huracan vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Huracan
Huracan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
7/7/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 23Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Huracan37%
×Draw28%
Atletico Tucuman35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracan
1.19
Atletico Tucuman
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Huracan
1.18
Atletico Tucuman
1.33

allows per match

Huracan
0.96
Atletico Tucuman
1.20

finishing

Huracan-0.78scores less
Atletico Tucuman-0.76scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Atletico Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huracan or draw
65%
Huracan or Atletico Tucuman
72%
Draw or Atletico Tucuman
63%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals
70%
Huracan 2+ goals
33%
Huracan 3+ goals
12%
Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
68%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
32%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)
51%
Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.96 · 5 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.18 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.33 + Huracan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huracan scores more
37%
level
28%
Atletico Tucuman scores more
35%

Huracan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huracan vs Atletico Tucuman

Atletico Tucuman beat Huracan 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.