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Atletico Tucuman vs Huracan — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Huracan
Huracan
11/19/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 23Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Atletico Tucuman43%
×Draw28%
Huracan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Tucuman
1.27
Huracan
0.99

Atletico Tucuman creates 28% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 121 away

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman
1.43
Huracan
0.93

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman
1.04
Huracan
1.11

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.00on par
Huracan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Huracan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw
71%
Atletico Tucuman or Huracan
72%
Draw or Huracan
57%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
19%
Huracan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
36%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
14%
Huracan 1+ goals
63%
Huracan 2+ goals
26%
Huracan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
60%
Huracan (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.04 · 122 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.11 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.43 + Huracan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Huracan attack 0.93 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more
43%
level
28%
Huracan scores more
29%

Atletico Tucuman at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Huracan

Atletico Tucuman beat Huracan 4-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro in San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán.