Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hull City vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Swansea
Swansea
12/21/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Hull City43%
×Draw25%
Swansea31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.51
Swansea
1.25

Hull City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 23 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
Swansea
1.12

allows per match

Hull City
1.38
Swansea
1.64

finishing

Hull City-0.07on par
Swansea-0.16scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
69%
Hull City or Swansea
75%
Draw or Swansea
57%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
21%
Swansea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
78%
Hull City 2+ goals
44%
Hull City 3+ goals
19%
Swansea 1+ goals
71%
Swansea 2+ goals
36%
Swansea 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
58%
Swansea (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.64 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Swansea defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Swansea attack 1.12 + Hull City defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hull City scores more
43%
level
25%
Swansea scores more
31%

Hull City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Hull City 2–1 Swansea

Hull City beat Swansea 2-1 in Championship on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.