Hull City 2–1 Swansea: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Swansea

R. Slater 39'

O. McBurnie 24' (pen)

L. Cullen 59'

1/24/2026

Championship · Round 29MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Hull City40%

×Draw26%

Swansea34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.24

Hull City

1.37

Swansea

1.24

Hull City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

1.32

creates per match

1.01

1.47

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Hull City

1.32

Swansea

1.01

allows per match

Hull City

1.47

Swansea

1.42

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Hull City-0.03on par

Swansea-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

66%

Hull City or Swansea

74%

Draw or Swansea

60%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

18%

Swansea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

75%

Hull City 2+ goals

40%

Hull City 3+ goals

16%

Swansea 1+ goals

71%

Swansea 2+ goals

35%

Swansea 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

54%

Swansea (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.47 · 24 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.42 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.32 + Swansea defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Swansea attack 1.01 + Hull City defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more

40%

level

26%

Swansea scores more

34%

Hull City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

R. Slater

Hull City · M

8.0

Match Events

22'

Cameron Burgess

24'

O. McBurniePenalty

32'

Akin Famewo

39'

R. Slater↳ A. Hadziahmetovic

46'

J. Key← E. Galbraith

48'

Liam Millar

56'

J. Lundstram← J. Gelhardt

56'

Y. Hirakawa← L. Millar

59'

L. Cullen↳ J. Tymon

66'

M. Stamenic← J. Eom

66'

M. Widell← G. Franco

66'

Gustavo Nunes← Ronald

70'

Josh Key

72'

B. Akintola← O. McBurnie

72'

M. Jacob← A. Hadziahmetovic

80'

M. Yalcouye← J. Fulton

88'

K. Dowell← K. Joseph

90+4'

Kieran Dowell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullSwansea

Overview

30%Possession70%

10Total Shots16

1.80Expected Goals (xG)1.98

6Corners7

13Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots16

7On Target4

3Off Target5

0Blocked7

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box7

Passing

30%Possession70%

227Total Passes543

146Accurate Passes455

64%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

0.32Goals Prevented0.32

Discipline

13Fouls6

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4