Swansea 2–2 Hull City: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hull City

Ronald 57'

Z. Vipotnik 40'

J. Egan 90'

O. McBurnie 45'

9/13/2025

Championship · Round 5Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Swansea43%

×Draw27%

Hull City30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.09

Swansea

1.36

Hull City

1.09

Swansea creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

1.20

creates per match

1.20

0.99

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Swansea

1.20

Hull City

1.20

allows per match

Swansea

0.99

Hull City

1.52

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Swansea+0.03on par

Hull City+0.01on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

70%

Swansea or Hull City

73%

Draw or Hull City

57%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

20%

Hull City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

74%

Swansea 2+ goals

39%

Swansea 3+ goals

16%

Hull City 1+ goals

66%

Hull City 2+ goals

30%

Hull City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

59%

Hull City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.99 · 13 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.52 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.20 + Hull City defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hull City attack 1.20 + Swansea defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Swansea scores more

43%

level

27%

Hull City scores more

30%

Swansea at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

B. Cabango

Swansea · D

7.3

Match Events

40'

Z. Vipotnik↳ M. Yalcouye

45'

O. McBurnie↳ R. Giles

52'

57'

64'

64'

64'

M. Belloumi← A. Hadziahmetovic

64'

R. Slater← B. Akintola

71'

L. Cullen← M. Yalcouye

77'

J. Ndala← J. Gelhardt

84'

D. Gyabi← J. Lundstram

85'

88'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaHull

Overview

65%Possession35%

9Total Shots15

1.00Expected Goals (xG)1.61

5Corners2

8Fouls5

Shots

9Total Shots15

2On Target6

6Off Target2

1Blocked7

6Inside Box14

3Outside Box1

Passing

65%Possession35%

599Total Passes307

505Accurate Passes211

84%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

-0.61Goals Prevented-0.61

Discipline

8Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1