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Hull City vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Swansea
Swansea
B. Cabango 3' (OG)
L. Cundle 39'
4/29/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 45The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

Hull City42%
×Draw26%
Swansea32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.40
Swansea
1.18

Hull City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 55 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.31
Swansea
1.10

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
Swansea
1.48

finishing

Hull City-0.12scores less
Swansea-0.03on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
68%
Hull City or Swansea
74%
Draw or Swansea
58%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
20%
Swansea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
75%
Hull City 2+ goals
41%
Hull City 3+ goals
17%
Swansea 1+ goals
69%
Swansea 2+ goals
33%
Swansea 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
57%
Swansea (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Swansea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Swansea attack 1.10 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hull City scores more
42%
level
26%
Swansea scores more
32%

Hull City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
R. ManningSwanseaSwansea · D
7.7

Match Events

3'
B. CabangoOwn goal
39'
L. Cundle↳ J. Paterson
43'
Ryan Manning
50'
Jamie Paterson
68'
O. Cooper← J. Paterson
73'
G. Docherty← J. Seri
73'
X. Simons← A. Sayyadmanesh
79'
D. Pelkas← O. Tufan
84'
C. Congreve← L. Cullen
84'
M. Whittaker← O. Ntcham
89'
R. Woods← H. Vaughan

Possession

38%Hull

Shots

7Hull

Pass accuracy

48%Hull

Statistics

HullSwansea
Overview
38%Possession62%
7Total Shots10
3Corners5
10Fouls10
Shots
7Total Shots10
1On Target2
4Off Target3
2Blocked5
1Inside Box9
6Outside Box1
Passing
38%Possession62%
444Total Passes715
378Accurate Passes652
85%Pass Accuracy91%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Championship: Hull City 1–1 Swansea

Hull City and Swansea drew 1-1 in Championship on April 29, 2023.

Goals: B. Cabango (3' o.g.), L. Cundle (39').

Swansea controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.