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Hull City vs Reading — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Reading
Reading
J. Irvine 16'
J. Bowen 6'
Lucas João 66'
8/10/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Hull City42%
×Draw27%
Reading31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.36
Reading
1.13

Hull City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 112 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.24
Reading
0.99

allows per match

Hull City
1.27
Reading
1.49

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
69%
Hull City or Reading
73%
Draw or Reading
58%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
20%
Reading wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
74%
Hull City 2+ goals
39%
Hull City 3+ goals
16%
Reading 1+ goals
68%
Reading 2+ goals
31%
Reading 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
57%
Reading (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 156 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.24 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Reading attack 0.99 + Hull City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hull City scores more
42%
level
27%
Reading scores more
31%

Hull City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. BowenHull CityHull City · F
9.3

Match Events

6'
J. Bowen
16'
J. Irvine↳ J. Bowen
30'
Jordy de Wijs
39'
Lucas Boyé
46'
G. Puşcaş← L. Boyé
60'
Andy Yiadom
66'
Lucas João↳ J. Swift
68'
C. Adam← Pelé
69'
Jon Toral← D. Batty
69'
N. Dicko← T. Eaves
79'
G. Honeyman← K. Grosicki
90'
Stephen Kingsley
90'
M. Morrison← A. Yiadom

Possession

35%Hull

Shots

14Hull

Pass accuracy

45%Hull

Statistics

HullReading
Overview
35%Possession65%
14Total Shots13
5Corners7
23Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots13
5On Target4
4Off Target6
5Blocked3
10Inside Box10
4Outside Box3
Passing
35%Possession65%
282Total Passes518
189Accurate Passes430
67%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
23Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Hull City vs Reading

Hull City beat Reading 2-1 in Championship on August 10, 2019.

Goals: J. Bowen (6'), J. Irvine (16'), Lucas João (66').

Reading controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.