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Hull City vs QPR — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
QPR
QPR
A. Connolly 64', 10'
R. Dickie 62' (OG)
1/28/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 29The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

Hull City43%
×Draw28%
QPR29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.29
QPR
1.02

Hull City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.31
QPR
0.79

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
QPR
1.28

finishing

Hull City-0.12scores less
QPR+0.11scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
71%
Hull City or QPR
72%
Draw or QPR
57%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
19%
QPR wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
72%
Hull City 2+ goals
37%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%
QPR 1+ goals
64%
QPR 2+ goals
27%
QPR 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
59%
QPR (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + QPR defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

QPR attack 0.79 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hull City scores more
43%
level
28%
QPR scores more
29%

Hull City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
A. ConnollyHull CityHull City · F
7.9

Match Events

10'
A. Connolly
20'
Jamal Lowe
40'
Tim Iroegbunam
45+3'
J. Clarke-Salter← K. Paal
46'
A. Dozzell← T. Iroegbunam
46'
S. Armstrong← A. Adomah
62'
R. DickieOwn goal
64'
A. Connolly↳ J. Seri
67'
Sinclair Armstrong
75'
R. Longman← J. Seri
75'
R. Woods← O. Tufan
75'
S. Johansen← S. Field
79'
C. Willock← T. Roberts
84'
L. Coyle← A. Connolly
89'
T. Smith← Ó. Estupiñán
89'
X. Simons← C. Christie
90+1'
Jimmy Dunne

Possession

40%Hull

Shots

7Hull

Pass accuracy

48%Hull

Statistics

HullQPR
Overview
40%Possession60%
7Total Shots5
4Corners5
10Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots5
3On Target2
2Off Target0
2Blocked3
4Inside Box3
3Outside Box2
Passing
40%Possession60%
349Total Passes520
274Accurate Passes440
79%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls8
0Yellow Cards4
2Offsides4

Championship: Hull City 3–0 QPR

Hull City beat QPR 3-0 in Championship on January 28, 2023.

Goals: A. Connolly (10', 64'), R. Dickie (62' o.g.).

QPR controlled possession (60%) and registered 5 shots to 7.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.