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Hull City vs Coventry — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
A. Kamara 82'
M. Grimes 46'
4/14/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 42The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Hull City33%
×Draw26%
Coventry41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.27
Coventry
1.44

Coventry creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.32
Coventry
1.36

allows per match

Hull City
1.51
Coventry
1.21

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Coventry+0.19scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
59%
Hull City or Coventry
74%
Draw or Coventry
67%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
14%
Coventry wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
72%
Hull City 2+ goals
36%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%
Coventry 1+ goals
76%
Coventry 2+ goals
42%
Coventry 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
45%
Coventry (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.51 · 19 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.32 + Coventry defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coventry attack 1.36 + Hull City defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hull City scores more
33%
level
26%
Coventry scores more
41%

Coventry at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
M. GrimesCoventryCoventry · M
8.9

Match Events

46'
M. Grimes↳ J. Rudoni
58'
N. Amrabat← Lincoln
59'
A. Kamara← K. Palmer
75'
Bradley Collins
77'
A. Jones← J. Egan
82'
A. Kamara↳ N. Amrabat
83'
N. Bassette← E. Simms
87'
C. Drameh← L. Coyle
87'
M. Crooks← S. Alzate
89'
J. Paterson← H. Wright

Possession

45%Hull

Shots

9Hull

Pass accuracy

50%Hull

Statistics

HullCoventry
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots14
0.94Expected Goals (xG)1.12
7Corners7
12Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots14
3On Target8
3Off Target4
3Blocked2
7Inside Box9
2Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
366Total Passes439
303Accurate Passes368
83%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
7Saves0
-0.73Goals Prevented-0.73
Discipline
12Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Championship: Hull City 1–1 Coventry

Hull City and Coventry drew 1-1 in Championship on April 14, 2025.

Goals: M. Grimes (46'), A. Kamara (82').

Coventry controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.