Coventry 2–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hull City

J. Rudoni 72'

E. Mason-Clark 52'

João Pedro 43'

12/14/2024

Championship · Round 21The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Coventry44%

×Draw25%

Hull City32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.29

Coventry

1.56

Hull City

1.29

Coventry creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

1.50

creates per match

1.26

1.32

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Coventry

1.50

Hull City

1.26

allows per match

Coventry

1.32

Hull City

1.61

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Coventry+0.17scores more

Hull City-0.02on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

68%

Coventry or Hull City

75%

Draw or Hull City

56%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

22%

Hull City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

79%

Coventry 2+ goals

46%

Coventry 3+ goals

21%

Hull City 1+ goals

72%

Hull City 2+ goals

37%

Hull City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

58%

Hull City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.32 · 9 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.61 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.50 + Hull City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hull City attack 1.26 + Coventry defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Coventry scores more

44%

level

25%

Hull City scores more

32%

Coventry at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Mason-Clark

Coventry · M

8.9

Match Events

32'

43'

43'

45+4'

46'

M. Burstow← A. Kamara

52'

E. Mason-Clark↳ V. Torp

54'

59'

59'

64'

66'

Victor TorpMissed penalty

69'

Norman Bassette

70'

G. Puerta← S. Alzate

72'

J. Rudoni↳ E. Mason-Clark

73'

E. Simms← N. Bassette

77'

C. Bedia← R. Longman

80'

J. Bidwell← J. Dasilva

87'

J. Eccles← V. Torp

87'

B. Thomas-Asante← E. Mason-Clark

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryHull

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots10

3.18Expected Goals (xG)0.94

10Corners2

16Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots10

7On Target4

6Off Target6

5Blocked0

15Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

490Total Passes312

423Accurate Passes236

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0.22Goals Prevented0.22

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1

Championship: Coventry 2–1 Hull City

Coventry beat Hull City 2-1 in Championship on December 14, 2024.

Goals: João Pedro (43'), E. Mason-Clark (52'), J. Rudoni (72').

Coventry controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry, West Midlands.

Coventry vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Coventry 2–1 Hull City