Coventry 2–3 Hull City: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Hull City

B. Thomas 58'

K. Palmer 36'

N. Ohio 78'

Fábio Carvalho 45+1' (pen)

J. Philogene 31'

4/24/2024

Championship · Round 38The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Coventry46%

×Draw24%

Hull City29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.25

Coventry

1.63

Hull City

1.25

Coventry creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.50

creates per match

1.18

1.32

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Coventry

1.50

Hull City

1.18

allows per match

Coventry

1.32

Hull City

1.76

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Coventry+0.17scores more

Hull City+0.02on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

71%

Coventry or Hull City

76%

Draw or Hull City

54%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

24%

Hull City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

80%

Coventry 2+ goals

48%

Coventry 3+ goals

22%

Hull City 1+ goals

71%

Hull City 2+ goals

36%

Hull City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

61%

Hull City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.32 · 9 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.50 + Hull City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hull City attack 1.18 + Coventry defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coventry scores more

46%

level

24%

Hull City scores more

29%

Coventry at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

Fábio Carvalho

Hull City · F

8.7

Match Events

31'

J. Philogene↳ Fábio Carvalho

36'

42'

45+2'

45+2'

45+3'

Jaden Philogene-Bidace

45+3'

Fabio Carvalho

45+1'

Fábio CarvalhoPenalty

46'

E. Simms← J. Bidwell

46'

H. Wright← M. Godden

58'

B. Thomas↳ J. Dasilva

59'

L. Coyle← T. Morton

60'

M. van Ewijk← J. Latibeaudiere

65'

L. Kitching← L. Binks

68'

69'

76'

76'

76'

78'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryHull

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots14

0.56Expected Goals (xG)1.87

4Corners8

7Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots14

3On Target8

3Off Target3

1Blocked3

4Inside Box9

3Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

556Total Passes461

485Accurate Passes380

87%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2