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Hull City vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Coventry
Coventry
M. Godden 9'
10/30/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

Hull City35%
×Draw26%
Coventry39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.27
Coventry
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 58 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.31
Coventry
1.44

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
Coventry
1.22

finishing

Hull City-0.12scores less
Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
61%
Hull City or Coventry
74%
Draw or Coventry
65%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
15%
Coventry wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
72%
Hull City 2+ goals
36%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%
Coventry 1+ goals
74%
Coventry 2+ goals
39%
Coventry 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
47%
Coventry (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coventry attack 1.44 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hull City scores more
35%
level
26%
Coventry scores more
39%

Coventry at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. ElderHull CityHull City · D
7.7

Match Events

9'
M. Godden↳ I. Maatsen
46'
S. McLoughlin← R. Smallwood
53'
Tom Eaves
63'
M. Wilks← G. Moncur
63'
J. Magennis← T. Eaves
65'
Andy Cannon
68'
J. Allen← M. Godden
77'
T. Walker← V. Gyökeres
83'
L. Kelly← G. Hamer

Possession

49%Hull

Shots

13Hull

Pass accuracy

51%Hull

Statistics

HullCoventry
Overview
49%Possession51%
13Total Shots11
4Corners8
12Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots11
4On Target3
5Off Target5
4Blocked3
8Inside Box6
5Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
431Total Passes455
328Accurate Passes328
76%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Hull City vs Coventry

Coventry beat Hull City 1-0 in Championship on October 30, 2021.

Goals: M. Godden (9').

Coventry controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.