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Hull City vs Charlton — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
J. Gelhardt 46'
L. Berry 90'
10/25/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hull City36%
×Draw26%
Charlton38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.27
Charlton
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.27
Charlton
1.14

allows per match

Hull City
1.51
Charlton
1.26

finishing

Hull City-0.03on par
Charlton-0.47scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
62%
Hull City or Charlton
74%
Draw or Charlton
64%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
15%
Charlton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
72%
Hull City 2+ goals
36%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%
Charlton 1+ goals
73%
Charlton 2+ goals
38%
Charlton 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
48%
Charlton (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.51 · 21 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.27 + Charlton defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Charlton attack 1.14 + Hull City defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hull City scores more
36%
level
26%
Charlton scores more
38%

Charlton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. KaminskiCharltonCharlton · G
7.7

Match Events

44'
Charlie Hughes
46'
J. Gelhardt↳ M. Crooks
53'
C. Coventry← H. Knibbs
54'
J. Bree← R. Apter
55'
Kyle Joseph
68'
L. Coyle← C. Drameh
69'
L. Millar← M. Crooks
70'
L. Berry← G. Docherty
70'
C. Kelman← M. Gillesphey
78'
E. Destan← K. Joseph
82'
D. Gyabi←
87'
O. Hernandez← S. Carey
90+4'
Charlie Kelman
90'
L. Berry

Possession

48%Hull

Shots

15Hull

Pass accuracy

49%Hull

Statistics

HullCharlton
Overview
48%Possession52%
15Total Shots11
1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.95
6Corners2
8Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots11
4On Target5
2Off Target4
9Blocked2
7Inside Box5
8Outside Box6
Passing
48%Possession52%
389Total Passes421
309Accurate Passes340
79%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
0.22Goals Prevented0.22
Discipline
8Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Hull City vs Charlton

Hull City and Charlton drew 1-1 in Championship on October 25, 2025.

Goals: J. Gelhardt (46'), L. Berry (90').

Charlton controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at MKM Stadium in Hull.