Charlton 2–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hull City

J. Fevrier 68'

C. Kelman 20'

J. Egan 45'

4/25/2026

Championship · Round 45The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Charlton39%

×Draw26%

Hull City34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.26

Charlton

1.37

Hull City

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 34 away

1.17

creates per match

1.19

1.33

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Charlton

1.17

Hull City

1.19

allows per match

Charlton

1.33

Hull City

1.57

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Charlton-0.06on par

Hull City+0.05on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

66%

Charlton or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

61%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

18%

Hull City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

75%

Charlton 2+ goals

40%

Charlton 3+ goals

16%

Hull City 1+ goals

72%

Hull City 2+ goals

36%

Hull City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

53%

Hull City (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.17 + Hull City defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hull City attack 1.19 + Charlton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Charlton scores more

39%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

34%

Charlton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

J. Fevrier

Charlton · D

7.9

Match Events

2'

Collins Sichenje

11'

P. McNair← E. Matazo

20'

C. Kelman↳ C. Coady

28'

R. Burke← C. Sichenje

34'

Lewie Coyle

45+6'

Thomas Kaminski

45'

J. Egan↳ P. McNair

46'

M. Belloumi← S. Ajayi

63'

T. Campbell← H. Knibbs

63'

L. Chambers← S. Carey

68'

J. Fevrier

69'

R. Slater← J. Gelhardt

70'

K. Joseph← L. Millar

79'

L. Koumas← R. Giles

83'

L. Dykes← C. Kelman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonHull

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots14

1.11Expected Goals (xG)0.94

5Corners11

10Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots14

7On Target4

3Off Target4

2Blocked6

5Inside Box10

7Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

261Total Passes397

167Accurate Passes302

64%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.47Goals Prevented-0.47

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Championship: Charlton 2–1 Hull City

Charlton beat Hull City 2-1 in Championship on April 25, 2026.

Goals: C. Kelman (20'), J. Egan (45'), J. Fevrier (68').

Hull City controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Valley in London.

Charlton vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Charlton 2–1 Hull City