Hull City 0–1 Charlton: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Charlton

J. Pearce 18'

6/20/2020

Championship · Round 38KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Hull City45%

×Draw25%

Charlton30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.20

Hull City

1.55

Charlton

1.20

Hull City creates 29% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 9 away

1.36

creates per match

0.97

1.43

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Hull City

1.36

Charlton

0.97

allows per match

Hull City

1.43

Charlton

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Charlton-0.08on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

70%

Hull City or Charlton

75%

Draw or Charlton

55%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

23%

Charlton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

79%

Hull City 2+ goals

46%

Hull City 3+ goals

20%

Charlton 1+ goals

70%

Charlton 2+ goals

34%

Charlton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

61%

Charlton (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.74 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.36 + Charlton defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.55

Charlton attack 0.97 + Hull City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hull City scores more

45%

level

25%

Charlton scores more

30%

Hull City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Pearce

Charlton · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

J. Pearce

39'

Adedeji Oshilaja

45'

Daniel Batty

56'

J. Magennis← T. Eaves

56'

J. Scott← J. Bowler

56'

G. Honeyman← Jon Toral

61'

A. Doughty← A. Morgan

71'

B. Purrington← A. Oshilaja

72'

C. Aneke← T. Hemed

73'

K. Lewis-Potter← D. Batty

82'

S. Field← A. McGeady

82'

J. Williams← M. Bonne

85'

M. Samuelsen← M. Wilks

90'

Darren Pratley

90'

Jonathan Williams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullCharlton

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots10

9Corners3

13Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target2

6Off Target4

3Blocked4

7Inside Box9

5Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

399Total Passes253

308Accurate Passes165

77%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0