Hull City 0–3 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Blackburn

T. Cantwell 50'

Y. Ohashi 47'

R. Hedges 18'

8/23/2025

Championship · Round 3MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Hull City32%

×Draw26%

Blackburn43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.47

Hull City

1.23

Blackburn

1.47

Blackburn creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

1.49

1.45

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Hull City

1.33

Blackburn

1.49

allows per match

Hull City

1.45

Blackburn

1.13

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Hull City-0.08on par

Blackburn-0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

57%

Hull City or Blackburn

74%

Draw or Blackburn

68%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

13%

Blackburn wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

71%

Hull City 2+ goals

35%

Hull City 3+ goals

13%

Blackburn 1+ goals

77%

Blackburn 2+ goals

43%

Blackburn 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

43%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 16 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.13 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.33 + Blackburn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Blackburn attack 1.49 + Hull City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hull City scores more

32%

level

26%

Blackburn scores more

43%

Blackburn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Cantwell

Blackburn · M

8.9

Match Events

12'

18'

37'

43'

47'

50'

56'

68'

B. Akintola← J. Ndala

69'

K. Montgomery← S. Tavares

70'

A. Henriksson← A. Kargbo

85'

Axel Henriksson

85'

B. Williams← R. Slater

85'

M. Belloumi← J. Gelhardt

86'

D. De Neve← R. Hedges

86'

M. Gueye← Y. Ohashi

90+6'

Oliver McBurnie

90+6'

Sean McLoughlin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullBlackburn

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots14

0.52Expected Goals (xG)3.03

2Corners1

18Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots14

2On Target6

2Off Target7

4Blocked1

4Inside Box13

4Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

429Total Passes437

347Accurate Passes362

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.38Goals Prevented0.38

Discipline

18Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2