Blackburn 0–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

R. Longman 77'

12/29/2024

Championship · Round 24Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Blackburn45%

×Draw26%

Hull City29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.10

Blackburn

1.44

Hull City

1.10

Blackburn creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 33 away

1.28

creates per match

1.21

0.99

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Blackburn

1.28

Hull City

1.21

allows per match

Blackburn

0.99

Hull City

1.60

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.22scores less

Hull City+0.03on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

71%

Blackburn or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

55%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

22%

Hull City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

76%

Blackburn 2+ goals

42%

Blackburn 3+ goals

18%

Hull City 1+ goals

67%

Hull City 2+ goals

30%

Hull City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

61%

Hull City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.99 · 16 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.28 + Hull City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hull City attack 1.21 + Blackburn defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blackburn scores more

45%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

29%

Blackburn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

A. Jones

Hull City · D

8.2

Match Events

58'

S. Alzate← X. Simons

59'

L. Coyle← M. Jacob

59'

R. Longman← M. Burstow

62'

62'

69'

76'

77'

R. Longman↳ R. Slater

80'

Owen Beck

84'

H. Leonard← S. Tronstad

84'

J. Rankin-Costello← A. Cozier-Duberry

87'

John Buckley

90+2'

F. Burns← A. Kamara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnHull

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots8

1.25Expected Goals (xG)1.33

8Corners3

12Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots8

2On Target3

8Off Target3

5Blocked2

10Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

458Total Passes321

372Accurate Passes244

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

0.32Goals Prevented0.32

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3