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Hull City vs Blackburn — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Blackburn
Blackburn
S. McLoughlin 20' (OG)
12/7/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Hull City37%
×Draw26%
Blackburn37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.33
Blackburn
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 16 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.41
Blackburn
1.23

allows per match

Hull City
1.41
Blackburn
1.25

finishing

Hull City-0.07on par
Blackburn-0.10scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
63%
Hull City or Blackburn
74%
Draw or Blackburn
63%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
17%
Blackburn wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
74%
Hull City 2+ goals
38%
Hull City 3+ goals
15%
Blackburn 1+ goals
73%
Blackburn 2+ goals
38%
Blackburn 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
50%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 35 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.41 + Blackburn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Blackburn attack 1.23 + Hull City defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hull City scores more
37%
level
26%
Blackburn scores more
37%

Hull City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. PearsBlackburnBlackburn · G
7.9

Match Events

20'
S. McLoughlinOwn goal
61'
M. Burstow← R. Longman
62'
S. Alzate← G. Puerta
67'
A. Cozier-Duberry← T. Dolan
69'
Charlie Hughes
70'
Yuki Ohashi
74'
João Pedro← K. Palmer
74'
A. Ömür← C. Bedia
77'
Owen Beck
84'
Steven Alzate
84'
M. Gueye← Y. Ohashi
85'
M. Mehlem← A. Kamara
85'
J. Rankin-Costello← T. Cantwell
90+6'
Joe Rankin-Costello
90+1'
Makhtar Gueye

Possession

59%Hull

Shots

14Hull

Pass accuracy

51%Hull

Statistics

HullBlackburn
Overview
59%Possession41%
14Total Shots5
0.96Expected Goals (xG)0.30
9Corners2
10Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots5
6On Target1
4Off Target2
4Blocked2
7Inside Box4
7Outside Box1
Passing
59%Possession41%
580Total Passes423
513Accurate Passes353
88%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
0.83Goals Prevented0.83
Discipline
10Fouls14
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides0

Championship: Hull City 0–1 Blackburn

Blackburn beat Hull City 1-0 in Championship on December 7, 2024.

Goals: S. McLoughlin (20' o.g.).

Hull City controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.