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Huesca vs Elche — Segunda División 2018

Huesca
Huesca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Elche
Elche
Joaquín Muñoz 90+3'
Diego González 79'
Álvaro Núñez 29'
5/17/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 40Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Huesca43%
×Draw28%
Elche29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huesca
1.29
Elche
0.99

Huesca creates 30% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 86 away

creates per match

Huesca
1.29
Elche
1.07

allows per match

Huesca
0.91
Elche
1.28

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par
Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Huesca or draw
71%
Huesca or Elche
72%
Draw or Elche
57%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+
20%
Elche wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals
72%
Huesca 2+ goals
37%
Huesca 3+ goals
14%
Elche 1+ goals
63%
Elche 2+ goals
26%
Elche 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)
60%
Elche (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.29 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Elche attack 1.07 + Huesca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huesca scores more
43%
level
28%
Elche scores more
29%

Huesca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
Diego GonzálezHuescaHuesca · D
8.5

Match Events

12'
Germán Valera
17'
Oscar Sielva
29'
Álvaro Núñez
31'
Rubén Pulido
58'
Marc Aguado
58'
Germán Valera
58'
Germán Valera
63'
Jairo Izquierdo← M. El Ghezouani
64'
Toni Abad← Rubén Pulido
64'
Diego González← Óscar Sielva
67'
Jorge Pulido
72'
A. Álvarez← Óscar Plano
72'
N. Castro← N. Fernández
76'
Hugo Vallejo← Ignasi Vilarrasa
76'
Joaquín Muñoz← Jorge Pulido
79'
Diego González↳ P. Soko
80'
Iker Unzueta← Javi Hernández
85'
Mario Gaspar← Álvaro Núñez
85'
Álex Martín← Marc Aguado
90+5'
Joaquín Muñoz
90+2'
Iker Unzueta
90+3'
Joaquín Muñoz↳ Diego González

Possession

50%Huesca

Shots

16Huesca

Pass accuracy

52%Huesca

Statistics

HuescaElche
Overview
50%Possession50%
16Total Shots9
7Corners0
17Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots9
7On Target3
6Off Target5
3Blocked1
13Inside Box2
3Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
386Total Passes399
329Accurate Passes316
85%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
17Fouls14
5Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Huesca vs Elche

Huesca beat Elche 2-1 in Segunda División on May 17, 2025.

Goals: Álvaro Núñez (29'), Diego González (79'), Joaquín Muñoz (90+3').

Huesca controlled possession (50%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio El Alcoraz in Huesca.