Elche 0–3 Huesca: Result & Stats | Segunda División

Elche

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Huesca

Javi Mier 81'

K. Hashimoto 38'

Álex Balboa 32'

5/12/2024

Segunda División · Round 39Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche46%

×Draw29%

Huesca25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchHuesca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.85

Elche

1.27

Huesca

0.85

Elche creates 49% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 130 away

1.31

creates per match

0.94

0.76

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Huesca

0.94

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Huesca

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Huesca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Huesca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Elche or draw

75%

Elche or Huesca

71%

Draw or Huesca

54%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

21%

Huesca wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

72%

Elche 2+ goals

36%

Elche 3+ goals

14%

Huesca 1+ goals

57%

Huesca 2+ goals

21%

Huesca 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

65%

Huesca (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Huesca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Huesca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Huesca attack 0.94 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elche scores more

46%

level

29%

Huesca scores more

25%

Elche at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Álvaro Fernández

Huesca · G

7.7

Match Events

22'

Iván Martos

32'

Álex Balboa↳ Juanjo Nieto

38'

K. Hashimoto

39'

Mourad El Ghezouani

46'

Sergio Carreira← Mario Gaspar

46'

Manu Nieto← Josan

56'

Eladio Zorrilla Jiménez

58'

Óscar Plano← Mourad

58'

Aleix Febas← Sergio Bermejo

62'

Javi Martínez← Álex Balboa

70'

S. Obeng← Elady

71'

Joaquín Muñoz← Hugo Vallejo

72'

Oscar Sielva

80'

Carlos Gutiérrez← Iván Martos

80'

Javi Mier← K. Hashimoto

81'

Javi Mier↳ Joaquín Muñoz

86'

Arnau Puigmal← Tete Morente

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheHuesca

Overview

75%Possession25%

21Total Shots8

3Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots8

4On Target3

10Off Target3

7Blocked2

8Inside Box4

13Outside Box4

Passing

75%Possession25%

676Total Passes224

609Accurate Passes151

90%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Elche vs Huesca

Huesca beat Elche 3-0 in Segunda División on May 12, 2024.

Goals: Álex Balboa (32'), K. Hashimoto (38'), Javi Mier (81').

Elche controlled possession (75%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.

Elche vs Huesca — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Elche vs Huesca