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Huesca vs Elche — La Liga 2026

Huesca
Huesca
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Elche
Elche
Rafa Mir 88' (pen), 3'
Sandro Ramírez 30'
D. Vavro 4' (OG)
4/9/2021La LigaLa Liga · Round 30Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Huesca46%
×Draw26%
Elche28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huesca
1.47
Elche
1.09

Huesca creates 35% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 76 away

creates per match

Huesca
1.11
Elche
0.83

allows per match

Huesca
1.36
Elche
1.83

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par
Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Huesca or draw
72%
Huesca or Elche
74%
Draw or Elche
54%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+
23%
Elche wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals
77%
Huesca 2+ goals
43%
Huesca 3+ goals
18%
Elche 1+ goals
66%
Elche 2+ goals
30%
Elche 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)
62%
Elche (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

Elche away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.11 + Elche defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.47

Elche attack 0.83 + Huesca defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Huesca scores more
46%
level
26%
Elche scores more
28%

Huesca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Rafa MirHuescaHuesca · F
7.9

Match Events

3'
Rafa Mir↳ David Ferreiro
4'
D. VavroOwn goal
25'
Rafa MirGoal cancelled
30'
Sandro Ramírez
46'
H. Palacios← Barragán
52'
Fidel
58'
Sergio Gómez← Sandro Ramírez
60'
Sergio Gómez
64'
Josan Ferrández← Pere Milla
64'
G. Carrillo← Tete Morente
65'
Mikel Rico← D. Vavro
65'
D. Siovas← Pedro Mosquera
70'
E. Rigoni← Fidel
71'
David Ferreiro
76'
Nino← G. Carrillo
80'
I. Doumbia← David Ferreiro
88'
Rafa MirPenalty
90'
Gonzalo Verdú

Possession

33%Huesca

Shots

8Huesca

Pass accuracy

45%Huesca

Statistics

HuescaElche
Overview
33%Possession67%
8Total Shots8
6Corners6
17Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots8
5On Target2
1Off Target3
2Blocked3
5Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
33%Possession67%
262Total Passes525
192Accurate Passes467
73%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

La Liga: Huesca 3–1 Elche

Huesca beat Elche 3-1 in La Liga on April 9, 2021.

Goals: Rafa Mir (3', 88' pen), D. Vavro (4' o.g.), Sandro Ramírez (30').

Elche controlled possession (67%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio El Alcoraz in Huesca.