Huesca 4–1 Cordoba: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Cordoba

Jordi Martín 89'

Sergi Enrich 31'

Joaquín Muñoz 29'

Óscar Sielva 13' (pen)

Adilson 44'

9/23/2024

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Huesca50%

×Draw26%

Cordoba24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchCordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.98

Huesca

1.52

Cordoba

0.98

Huesca creates 55% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 74 away

1.29

creates per match

1.04

0.91

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Huesca

1.29

Cordoba

1.04

allows per match

Huesca

0.91

Cordoba

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par

Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

76%

Huesca or Cordoba

74%

Draw or Cordoba

50%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

25%

Cordoba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

78%

Huesca 2+ goals

45%

Huesca 3+ goals

20%

Cordoba 1+ goals

62%

Cordoba 2+ goals

26%

Cordoba 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

67%

Cordoba (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.29 + Cordoba defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cordoba attack 1.04 + Huesca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Huesca scores more

50%

level

26%

Cordoba scores more

24%

Huesca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Adilson

Cordoba · F

7.9

Match Events

13'

Óscar SielvaPenalty

25'

Gerard Valentín

29'

Joaquín Muñoz↳ Gerard Valentín

31'

Sergi Enrich↳ Ignasi Vilarrasa

33'

Carlos Isaac

36'

Genaro Rodríguez← Isma Ruiz

42'

Oscar Sielva

44'

Adilson↳ Cristian Carracedo

46'

N. Obolskiy← T. Zidane

46'

José Martínez← Marvel

57'

P. Soko← Javi Pérez

57'

Javi Mier← Joaquín Muñoz

74'

Iker Unzueta← Iker Kortajarena

74'

Jordi Martín← Sergi Enrich

75'

Ander Yoldi← Antonio Casas

75'

J. Soonsup-Bell← Carlos Isaac

82'

J. Blasco← Gerard Valentín

89'

Jordi Martín↳ Iker Unzueta

90+1'

Genaro

90+6'

José Antonio Martinez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuescaCordoba

Overview

32%Possession68%

9Total Shots16

3Corners7

9Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots16

5On Target4

3Off Target6

1Blocked6

7Inside Box8

2Outside Box8

Passing

32%Possession68%

221Total Passes460

139Accurate Passes382

63%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

4Offsides4