Huesca 1–3 Almeria: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Almeria

D. Ojeda 23'

D. Lopy 73'

S. Arribas 33' (pen)

Leo Baptistao 11'

3/20/2026

Segunda División · Round 31Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Huesca40%

×Draw28%

Almeria32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.09

Huesca

1.27

Almeria

1.09

Huesca creates 17% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 133 away

1.29

creates per match

1.27

0.91

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Huesca

1.29

Almeria

1.27

allows per match

Huesca

0.91

Almeria

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

68%

Huesca or Almeria

72%

Draw or Almeria

60%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

18%

Almeria wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

72%

Huesca 2+ goals

36%

Huesca 3+ goals

14%

Almeria 1+ goals

66%

Almeria 2+ goals

30%

Almeria 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

56%

Almeria (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.26 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.29 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Almeria attack 1.27 + Huesca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huesca scores more

40%

level

28%

Almeria scores more

32%

Huesca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

D. Lopy

Almeria · M

8.0

Match Events

11'

Leo Baptistao

23'

D. Ojeda↳ J. Seoane

29'

Miguel de la FuentePenalty confirmed

33'

S. ArribasPenalty

38'

Marcos Luna

43'

Miguel de la Fuente

56'

Léo BaptistãoCard upgrade

57'

Léo Baptistão

63'

S. Enrich← F. Portillo

64'

Jordi Martín

71'

A. Cantero← A. Carrillo

71'

D. Luna← D. Ojeda

71'

P. Soko← M. de la Fuente

73'

D. Lopy↳ P. Soko

81'

J. Mier← I. Laquintana

81'

R. Abajas← J. Martin

81'

A. Puigmal← S. Arribas

81'

D. Chirino← M. Luna

90+1'

N. Melamed← A. Embarba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuescaAlmeria

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots12

4Corners5

10Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots12

4On Target8

4Off Target3

6Blocked1

9Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

370Total Passes367

285Accurate Passes290

77%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls19

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2