Huesca 2–2 Almeria: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Almeria

Ignasi Vilarrasa 56' (pen)

Iker Unzueta 9'

Álex Centelles 85'

Sergio Arribas 82'

10/27/2024

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Huesca40%

×Draw28%

Almeria32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.10

Huesca

1.27

Almeria

1.10

Huesca creates 15% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 131 away

1.29

creates per match

1.29

0.91

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Huesca

1.29

Almeria

1.29

allows per match

Huesca

0.91

Almeria

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

68%

Huesca or Almeria

72%

Draw or Almeria

60%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

18%

Almeria wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

72%

Huesca 2+ goals

36%

Huesca 3+ goals

14%

Almeria 1+ goals

67%

Almeria 2+ goals

30%

Almeria 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

56%

Almeria (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.26 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.29 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Almeria attack 1.29 + Huesca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huesca scores more

40%

level

28%

Almeria scores more

32%

Huesca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Iker Unzueta

Huesca · F

7.5

Match Events

3'

Toni Abad

4'

Luis Javier SuárezMissed penalty

9'

36'

38'

43'

45+3'

46'

Jordi Martín← Iker Unzueta

46'

Sergio Arribas← Kaiky

46'

Álex Centelles← Bruno Langa

54'

Toni AbadPenalty confirmed

55'

Álex Centelles

56'

Ignasi VilarrasaPenalty

64'

R. Fettal← Nico Melamed

64'

Arnau Puigmal← Álex Pozo

65'

Javi Mier← Javi Hernández

78'

A. Arguigue← P. Soko

78'

Marc Pubill← Edgar González

82'

Sergio Arribas↳ R. Fettal

85'

Hugo Anglada← Javi Pérez

85'

Álex Centelles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuescaAlmeria

Overview

21%Possession79%

9Total Shots23

1Corners7

13Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots23

3On Target5

4Off Target12

2Blocked6

7Inside Box8

2Outside Box15

Passing

21%Possession79%

168Total Passes636

101Accurate Passes566

60%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Huesca vs Almeria

Huesca and Almeria drew 2-2 in Segunda División on October 27, 2024.

Goals: Iker Unzueta (9'), Ignasi Vilarrasa (56' pen), Sergio Arribas (82'), Álex Centelles (85').

Almeria controlled possession (79%) and registered 23 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio El Alcoraz in Huesca.

Huesca vs Almeria — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Huesca vs Almeria