Almeria 0–0 Huesca: Result & Stats

Almeria

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huesca

11/29/2025

Segunda División · Round 16UD Almeria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Almeria50%

×Draw26%

Huesca24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmeriaExpected goals in this matchHuesca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.94

Almeria

1.50

Huesca

0.94

Almeria creates 60% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 130 away

1.77

creates per match

0.94

0.95

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Almeria

1.77

Huesca

0.94

allows per match

Almeria

0.95

Huesca

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almeria+0.00on par

Huesca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeria ↓

Huesca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Almeria or draw

76%

Almeria or Huesca

74%

Draw or Huesca

50%

Winning margin

Almeria wins by 2+

25%

Huesca wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Almeria 1+ goals

78%

Almeria 2+ goals

44%

Almeria 3+ goals

19%

Huesca 1+ goals

61%

Huesca 2+ goals

24%

Huesca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Almeria (draw refunded)

68%

Huesca (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeria at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.95 · 132 matches

Huesca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeria attack 1.77 + Huesca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Huesca attack 0.94 + Almeria defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Almeria scores more

50%

level

26%

Huesca scores more

24%

Almeria at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Almeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

D. Jimenez

Huesca · G

8.3

Match Events

39'

Thalys

59'

M. Perovic← A. Puigmal

59'

P. Soko← Thalys

62'

A. Carrillo← D. Ojeda

62'

E. Rodriguez← S. Enrich

70'

70'

77'

87'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmeriaHuesca

Overview

69%Possession31%

24Total Shots4

13Corners1

11Fouls6

Shots

24Total Shots4

6On Target1

11Off Target3

7Blocked0

14Inside Box2

10Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

582Total Passes281

515Accurate Passes200

88%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2