Huddersfield 1–5 Fulham: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Fulham

M. Pearson 41'

Ivan Cavaleiro 90+5', 78'

F. Carvalho 42'

J. Onomah 37'

A. Mitrović 9'

8/14/2021

Championship · Round 2John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Huddersfield30%

×Draw27%

Fulham43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.38

Huddersfield

1.09

Fulham

1.38

Fulham creates 27% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 46 away

1.23

creates per match

1.54

1.22

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.23

Fulham

1.54

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.22

Fulham

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Fulham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

57%

Huddersfield or Fulham

73%

Draw or Fulham

70%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

12%

Fulham wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

66%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

30%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

10%

Fulham 1+ goals

75%

Fulham 2+ goals

40%

Fulham 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

41%

Fulham (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 123 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.23 + Fulham defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Fulham attack 1.54 + Huddersfield defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huddersfield scores more

30%

level

27%

Fulham scores more

43%

Fulham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Ivan Cavaleiro

Fulham · F

8.9

Match Events

9'

A. Mitrović

37'

J. Onomah↳ B. De Cordova-Reid

39'

Bobby Reid

41'

M. Pearson↳ S. Thomas

42'

F. Carvalho↳ B. De Cordova-Reid

46'

F. Campbell← D. Ward

46'

S. High← Álex Vallejo

67'

J. Rhodes← D. Holmes

72'

Harry Wilson

73'

Levi Colwill

77'

Ivan Cavaleiro← J. Onomah

77'

A. Zambo Anguissa← F. Carvalho

78'

Ivan Cavaleiro↳ B. De Cordova-Reid

86'

T. Francois← J. Seri

90+5'

Ivan Cavaleiro↳ A. Mitrović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldFulham

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots15

5Corners7

10Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots15

2On Target11

4Off Target3

3Blocked1

6Inside Box12

3Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

382Total Passes492

303Accurate Passes407

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1