Fulham 3–2 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Huddersfield

A. Mitrović 31'

T. Cairney 15'

B. Reid 10'

S. Mounié 39'

E. Smith Rowe 35'

2/1/2020

Championship · Round 30Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fulham55%

×Draw23%

Huddersfield23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.10

Fulham

1.84

Huddersfield

1.10

Fulham creates 67% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 120 away

2.02

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Fulham

2.02

Huddersfield

1.07

allows per match

Fulham

1.13

Huddersfield

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham+0.00on par

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

77%

Fulham or Huddersfield

77%

Draw or Huddersfield

45%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

31%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

84%

Fulham 2+ goals

55%

Fulham 3+ goals

28%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

67%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

30%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

71%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 2.02 + Huddersfield defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.84

Huddersfield attack 1.07 + Fulham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fulham scores more

55%

level

23%

Huddersfield scores more

23%

Fulham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

E. Smith Rowe

Huddersfield · M

8.4

Match Events

10'

B. Reid↳ M. Hector

15'

T. Cairney↳ C. Christie

31'

A. Mitrović↳ J. Bryan

35'

E. Smith Rowe

38'

Lewis O'Brien

39'

S. Mounié↳ E. Smith Rowe

48'

Kevin McDonald

57'

A. Kamara← Ivan Cavaleiro

62'

H. Arter← K. McDonald

76'

S. Johansen← T. Cairney

76'

F. Campbell← S. Mounié

82'

Cyrus Christie

82'

A. King← T. Chalobah

89'

R. Pyke← E. Smith Rowe

90'

Stefan Johansen

90'

Marek Rodák

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamHuddersfield

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots12

2Corners6

12Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target8

6Off Target3

1Blocked1

7Inside Box10

3Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

483Total Passes361

407Accurate Passes265

84%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0