Fulham 1–0 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huddersfield

A. Mitrović 90+1'

12/29/2018

Premier League · Round 20Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Fulham52%

×Draw25%

Huddersfield23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.99

Fulham

1.63

Huddersfield

0.99

Fulham creates 65% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 36 away

1.31

creates per match

0.58

1.40

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Fulham

1.31

Huddersfield

0.58

allows per match

Fulham

1.40

Huddersfield

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham+0.00on par

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

77%

Fulham or Huddersfield

75%

Draw or Huddersfield

48%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

28%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

80%

Fulham 2+ goals

48%

Fulham 3+ goals

22%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

63%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

26%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

69%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.40 · 87 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 1.31 + Huddersfield defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.63

Huddersfield attack 0.58 + Fulham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fulham scores more

52%

level

25%

Huddersfield scores more

23%

Fulham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Sergio Rico

Fulham · G

7.9

Match Events

25'

Jean-Michaël Seri

44'

Denis Odoi

46'

M. Le Marchand← A. Mawson

46'

A. Kamara← J. Seri

64'

Cyrus Christie

65'

E. Kachunga← A. Pritchard

65'

L. Depoitre← S. Mounié

69'

Jonathan Hogg

77'

R. Sessegnon← L. Vietto

90+1'

A. Mitrović↳ R. Sessegnon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamHuddersfield

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots9

4Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots9

5On Target5

7Off Target1

2Blocked3

12Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

395Total Passes529

295Accurate Passes418

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2