Huddersfield 4–0 Charlton: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Charlton

J. Bacuna 90+4'

K. Ahearne-Grant 90', 25'

S. Mounié 75'

2/29/2020

Championship · Round 36John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Huddersfield38%

×Draw27%

Charlton35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.18

Huddersfield

1.25

Charlton

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

0.96

creates per match

0.89

1.47

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Huddersfield

0.96

Charlton

0.89

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.47

Charlton

1.55

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Huddersfield-0.06on par

Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

65%

Huddersfield or Charlton

73%

Draw or Charlton

62%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

17%

Charlton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

71%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

36%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

13%

Charlton 1+ goals

69%

Charlton 2+ goals

33%

Charlton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

52%

Charlton (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 10 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 0.96 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Charlton attack 0.89 + Huddersfield defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huddersfield scores more

38%

level

27%

Charlton scores more

35%

Huddersfield at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

K. Ahearne-Grant

Huddersfield · M

8.6

Match Events

25'

K. Ahearne-Grant

46'

J. Williams← E. Öztümer

61'

M. Bonne← A. McGeady

66'

J. Bacuna← C. Willock

70'

A. Pritchard← E. Smith Rowe

74'

S. Mounié← F. Campbell

75'

82'

82'

86'

88'

90'

K. Ahearne-Grant↳ J. Bacuna

90+4'

J. Bacuna↳ S. Mounié

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldCharlton

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots10

5Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots10

8On Target2

6Off Target3

6Blocked5

11Inside Box8

9Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

500Total Passes383

416Accurate Passes301

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Championship: Huddersfield 4–0 Charlton

Huddersfield beat Charlton 4-0 in Championship on February 29, 2020.

Goals: K. Ahearne-Grant (25', 90'), S. Mounié (75'), J. Bacuna (90+4').

Huddersfield controlled possession (56%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.

Huddersfield vs Charlton — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Huddersfield 4–0 Charlton