Charlton 0–1 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Huddersfield

M. Daly 90+2'

12/10/2019

Championship · Round 21The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Charlton38%

×Draw27%

Huddersfield35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.22

Charlton

1.28

Huddersfield

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

1.12

creates per match

1.11

1.32

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Charlton

1.12

Huddersfield

1.11

allows per match

Charlton

1.32

Huddersfield

1.44

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Charlton-0.12scores less

Huddersfield+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

65%

Charlton or Huddersfield

73%

Draw or Huddersfield

62%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

17%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

72%

Charlton 2+ goals

37%

Charlton 3+ goals

14%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

70%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

34%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

52%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.12 + Huddersfield defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Huddersfield attack 1.11 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Charlton scores more

38%

level

27%

Huddersfield scores more

35%

Charlton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

F. Hadërgjonaj

Huddersfield · D

7.5

Match Events

27'

31'

36'

46'

69'

73'

J. Vennings← A. Doughty

73'

D. Simpson← J. Koroma

76'

M. Daly← S. Mounié

87'

Tom Lockyer

90+2'

M. Daly↳ F. Hadërgjonaj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonHuddersfield

Overview

41%Possession59%

6Total Shots16

1Corners6

16Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots16

0On Target5

2Off Target6

4Blocked5

4Inside Box9

2Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

334Total Passes466

221Accurate Passes336

66%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

6Offsides2