Huddersfield 0–1 Burnley: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Burnley

I. Maatsen 18'

7/29/2022

Championship · Round 1John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Huddersfield27%

×Draw28%

Burnley45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.33

Huddersfield

0.96

Burnley

1.33

Burnley creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

1.05

creates per match

1.28

1.37

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.05

Burnley

1.28

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.37

Burnley

0.86

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Huddersfield-0.05on par

Burnley+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

55%

Huddersfield or Burnley

72%

Draw or Burnley

73%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

10%

Burnley wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

62%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

25%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

7%

Burnley 1+ goals

74%

Burnley 2+ goals

38%

Burnley 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

37%

Burnley (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.86 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.05 + Burnley defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Burnley attack 1.28 + Huddersfield defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Huddersfield scores more

27%

level

28%

Burnley scores more

45%

Burnley at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

I. Maatsen

Burnley · D

8.3

Match Events

18'

I. Maatsen↳ A. Barnes

56'

J. Rudoni← J. Koroma

57'

F. Anjorin← D. Holmes

58'

Josh Cullen

66'

Arijanet Murić

70'

S. Twine← S. Bastien

72'

D. Kasumu← J. Russell

74'

Vitinho← D. Costelloe

84'

David Kasumu

89'

Y. Nakayama← D. Kasumu

89'

J. Rhodes← R. Edmonds-Green

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldBurnley

Overview

31%Possession69%

2Total Shots16

1Corners5

13Fouls10

Shots

2Total Shots16

0On Target7

1Off Target6

1Blocked3

2Inside Box9

0Outside Box7

Passing

31%Possession69%

261Total Passes599

175Accurate Passes506

67%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3