Huddersfield 1–2 Burnley: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Burnley

S. Mounié 33'

A. Barnes 74'

C. Wood 40'

1/2/2019

Premier League · Round 21John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Huddersfield36%

×Draw28%

Burnley37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.21

Huddersfield

1.19

Burnley

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 156 away

0.68

creates per match

0.96

1.47

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Huddersfield

0.68

Burnley

0.96

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.47

Burnley

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

63%

Huddersfield or Burnley

72%

Draw or Burnley

64%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

15%

Burnley wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

70%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

33%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

12%

Burnley 1+ goals

70%

Burnley 2+ goals

34%

Burnley 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

49%

Burnley (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 0.68 + Burnley defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.19

Burnley attack 0.96 + Huddersfield defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huddersfield scores more

36%

level

28%

Burnley scores more

37%

Burnley at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Westwood

Burnley · M

7.8

Match Events

14'

Ben Mee

30'

Christopher Schindler

31'

Phil Bardsley

33'

S. Mounié↳ I. Mbenza

40'

C. Wood↳ D. McNeil

41'

Christopher Schindler

41'

Christopher Schindler

44'

E. Durm← A. Pritchard

59'

M. Lowton← P. Bardsley

63'

R. Brady← D. McNeil

71'

C. Löwe← F. Hadergjonaj

74'

A. Barnes↳ A. Westwood

78'

83'

90'

90'

90+2'

J. Hendrick← A. Barnes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldBurnley

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots16

5Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots16

2On Target8

3Off Target7

4Blocked1

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

361Total Passes483

234Accurate Passes375

65%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

0Offsides2