Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Horizonte vs Barbalha — League #609 2026

Horizonte
Horizonte
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Barbalha
Barbalha
3/14/2024League #609League #609 · Relegation Round - 6Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Horizonte24%
×Draw25%
Barbalha52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horizonte
1.03
Barbalha
1.64

Barbalha creates 59% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Horizonte
0.40
Barbalha
2.67

allows per match

Horizonte
0.60
Barbalha
1.67

finishing

Horizonte+0.00on par
Barbalha+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horizonte ↓

Barbalha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Horizonte or draw
48%
Horizonte or Barbalha
75%
Draw or Barbalha
76%

Winning margin

Horizonte wins by 2+
9%
Barbalha wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Horizonte 1+ goals
64%
Horizonte 2+ goals
28%
Horizonte 3+ goals
9%
Barbalha 1+ goals
81%
Barbalha 2+ goals
49%
Barbalha 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Horizonte (draw refunded)
32%
Barbalha (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horizonte at home — creates 0.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Barbalha away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horizonte attack 0.40 + Barbalha defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Barbalha attack 2.67 + Horizonte defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Horizonte scores more
24%
level
25%
Barbalha scores more
52%

Barbalha at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Barbalha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horizonte vs Barbalha

Horizonte beat Barbalha 2-1 in League #609 on March 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa in Horizonte, Ceará.