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Horizonte vs Barbalha — Cearense - 2 2019

Horizonte
Horizonte
FT
0 – 0
Barbalha
Barbalha
7/16/2022Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 2nd Phase - 2Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Horizonte44%
×Draw30%
Barbalha26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horizonte
1.19
Barbalha
0.85

Horizonte creates 40% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

creates per match

Horizonte
1.28
Barbalha
0.82

allows per match

Horizonte
0.89
Barbalha
1.09

finishing

Horizonte+0.00on par
Barbalha+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horizonte ↓

Barbalha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Horizonte or draw
74%
Horizonte or Barbalha
70%
Draw or Barbalha
56%

Winning margin

Horizonte wins by 2+
19%
Barbalha wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Horizonte 1+ goals
70%
Horizonte 2+ goals
33%
Horizonte 3+ goals
12%
Barbalha 1+ goals
57%
Barbalha 2+ goals
21%
Barbalha 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Horizonte (draw refunded)
63%
Barbalha (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horizonte at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Barbalha away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horizonte attack 1.28 + Barbalha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Barbalha attack 0.82 + Horizonte defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Horizonte scores more
44%
level
30%
Barbalha scores more
26%

Horizonte at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Horizonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cearense - 2: Horizonte 0–0 Barbalha

Horizonte and Barbalha drew 0-0 in Cearense - 2 on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa in Horizonte, Ceará.