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Barbalha vs Horizonte — Cearense - 2 2019

Barbalha
Barbalha
FT
2 – 1
Horizonte
Horizonte
6/19/2022Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Antônio Lírio Callou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Barbalha32%
×Draw30%
Horizonte38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barbalha
1.00
Horizonte
1.10

Horizonte creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

creates per match

Barbalha
1.00
Horizonte
1.39

allows per match

Barbalha
0.82
Horizonte
1.00

finishing

Barbalha+0.00on par
Horizonte+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbalha ↓

Horizonte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Barbalha or draw
62%
Barbalha or Horizonte
70%
Draw or Horizonte
68%

Winning margin

Barbalha wins by 2+
12%
Horizonte wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Barbalha 1+ goals
63%
Barbalha 2+ goals
26%
Barbalha 3+ goals
8%
Horizonte 1+ goals
67%
Horizonte 2+ goals
30%
Horizonte 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barbalha (draw refunded)
46%
Horizonte (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbalha at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Horizonte away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbalha attack 1.00 + Horizonte defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Horizonte attack 1.39 + Barbalha defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barbalha scores more
32%
level
30%
Horizonte scores more
38%

Horizonte at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Horizonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cearense - 2: Barbalha 2–1 Horizonte

Barbalha beat Horizonte 2-1 in Cearense - 2 on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Lírio Callou in Barbalha, Ceará.